// Projections and valuation 


**********************************
**********************************
** FUTURE SST, CASE PREDICTIONS **
**********************************
**********************************

**************
* LOCAL VARS *
**************

local mult_para = 4.990*1.1*142.4*(1-0.02)
local mult_vul = 2.653*1.1*1.7*(1-0.10)
local mult_alg = 2.843*1.1*142.4*(1-0.11)
local mult_other = 8.782*1.1*142.7*(1-0.11)

************
* BASELINE *
************
// 1995 era: 1986-2005

import excel using "ProjectedSST_Coastline.xlsx", sheet("Baseline") firstrow case(upper) 
tempfile conus
save `conus'
clear 
import excel using "ProjectedSST_GCMrawSSTdelta_forHI_ONLY_v1.xlsx", sheet("Baseline") firstrow case(upper) 
tempfile hawaii
save `hawaii'
clear 
import excel using "ProjectedSST_Coastline_Alaska.xlsx", sheet("Baseline") firstrow case(upper) 
append using `conus'
append using `hawaii'

rename A FIPS
gen state_num=substr(FIPS,-5,2)
	replace state_num=substr(FIPS,-4,1) if state_num==""
    drop if state_num=="F" 
	destring state_num, replace

// CREATE VARIABLE NAMES FROM DATES
local i 1
foreach v of varlist B-IG{
rename `v' y`i'
local i = `i' + 1
}

reshape long y, i(FIPS) j(year_month)
rename y sst

gen month = mod(year,12)
replace month = 12 if month == 0

gen year = ""
destring year, replace

local i 1
foreach j of numlist 1986/2005{
replace year = `j' if (year_month/12) <= `i' & year_month/12 > `i' - 1
local i = `i' + 1
}

// PREDICTION
// include all vars in the models (regardless of stat sig) 

// PAR
gen sst2=sst-8 if sst>=8
   replace sst2=0 if sst2==.
local X = "-6.458 + 0.204*sst2 + 0*1.state_num + 0.578*2.state_num + 1.712*6.state_num + 2.590*9.state_num + 0.447*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -0.323*12.state_num + -1.304*13.state_num + -0.593*15.state_num + -0.970*22.state_num + 1.414*23.state_num + -0.103*24.state_num + 2.483*25.state_num + -0.161*28.state_num + 0.0364*33.state_num + 1.084*34.state_num + 1.070*36.state_num + -1.012*37.state_num + 2.753*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 1.347*44.state_num + -0.327*45.state_num + -0.319*48.state_num + 0.242*51.state_num + 3.905*53.state_num" 
generate cases_para = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
   replace cases_para = cases_para*`mult_para'
drop sst2

// VUL
gen sst2=sst-13 if sst>=13 & sst<20
   replace sst2=0 if sst<13
   replace sst2=7 if sst>20
gen sst3=sst-20 if sst>=20
   replace sst3=0 if sst<20
local X = "-6.103 + 0.484*sst2 + 0.167*sst3 + 0*1.state_num + 0*2.state_num + -1.600*6.state_num + -0.725*9.state_num + -1.516*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -1.331*12.state_num + -2.212*13.state_num + -1.409*15.state_num + -1.657*22.state_num + -0.773*23.state_num + -0.583*24.state_num + -1.051*25.state_num + -0.652*28.state_num + 0*33.state_num + -1.554*34.state_num + -2.011*36.state_num + -2.272*37.state_num + -0.982*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + -1.627*44.state_num + -2.123*45.state_num + -0.918*48.state_num + -1.312*51.state_num + 0*53.state_num" 
generate cases_vul = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
   replace cases_vul = cases_vul*`mult_vul'
drop sst2 sst3

// ALG
gen sst2=sst-5 if sst>=5 & sst<22
   replace sst2=0 if sst<5
   replace sst2=17 if sst>22
gen sst3=sst-22 if sst>=22
   replace sst3=0 if sst<22
local X = "-10.73 + 0.395*sst2 + 0.0960*sst3 + 0*1.state_num + 0*2.state_num + 3.387*6.state_num + 1.650*9.state_num + 1.271*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + 1.125*12.state_num + -1.102*13.state_num + 2.321*15.state_num + -2.422*22.state_num + 3.138*23.state_num + 0.00945*24.state_num + 2.767*25.state_num + -1.799*28.state_num + 2.513*33.state_num + 1.202*34.state_num + 1.141*36.state_num + 0.319*37.state_num + 0*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 2.152*44.state_num + 1.098*45.state_num + 0.205*48.state_num + -1.111*51.state_num + 2.294*53.state_num" 
generate cases_alg = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
   replace cases_alg = cases_alg*`mult_alg'
drop sst2 sst3

// OTHER 
local X = "-6.262 + 0.137*sst + 0*1.state_num + -0.726*2.state_num + 0.394*6.state_num + 1.074*9.state_num + 0.110*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -0.0440*12.state_num + -1.820*13.state_num + 0.0000387*15.state_num + 0.115*22.state_num + 0.416*23.state_num + 0.127*24.state_num + 1.279*25.state_num + -0.414*28.state_num + 0.541*33.state_num + 0.354*34.state_num + -0.938*36.state_num + -0.432*37.state_num + 0.520*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 0.432*44.state_num + -1.055*45.state_num + -0.206*48.state_num + -0.311*51.state_num + 1.536*53.state_num" 
generate cases_other = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
   replace cases_other = cases_other*`mult_other'

collapse (sum) cases_para cases_vul cases_alg cases_other, by(FIPS state_num year)
collapse (mean) cases_para cases_vul cases_alg cases_other, by(FIPS state_num)


gen era=1995
gen rcp="baseline"
gen run="baseline"

tempfile baseline
save `baseline'
clear

***************
* PROJECTIONS *
***************
// 2030 era: 2020-2039
// 2050 era: 2040-2059
// 2070 era: 2060-2079
// 2090 era: 2080-2099

// CONUS 

foreach x in "CanESM2_rcp45" "CanESM2_rcp85" "MIROC5_rcp45" "MIROC5_rcp85" "HadGEM2ES_rcp85" "HadGEM2ES_rcp45" "GISSE2R_rcp85" "GISSE2R_rcp45" "GFDLCM3_rcp85" "GFDLCM3_rcp45" "CCSM4_rcp85" "CCSM4_rcp45" {

		import excel using "ProjectedSST_Coastline.xlsx", sheet(`x') firstrow case(upper) 
		   gen rcp=substr("`x'", -5, 5)
		   gen run=substr("`x'", 1, 4)
		   
		rename A FIPS
		gen state_num=substr(FIPS,-5,2)
			replace state_num=substr(FIPS,-4,1) if state_num==""
			drop if state_num=="F" 
			destring state_num, replace

		// CREATE VARIABLE NAMES FROM DATES
		local i 1
		foreach v of varlist B-AQK{
		rename `v' y`i'
		local i = `i' + 1
		}

		reshape long y, i(FIPS) j(year_month)
		rename y sst

		gen month = mod(year,12)
		replace month = 12 if month == 0

		gen year = ""
		destring year, replace

		local i 1
		foreach j of numlist 2006/2099{
		replace year = `j' if (year_month/12) <= `i' & year_month/12 > `i' - 1
		local i = `i' + 1
		}
		
		// PREDICTION
		// include all vars in the models (regardless of stat sig) except year dummies 

		// PAR
		gen sst2=sst-8 if sst>=8
		   replace sst2=0 if sst2==.
		local X = "-6.458 + 0.204*sst2 + 0*1.state_num + 0.578*2.state_num + 1.712*6.state_num + 2.590*9.state_num + 0.447*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -0.323*12.state_num + -1.304*13.state_num + -0.593*15.state_num + -0.970*22.state_num + 1.414*23.state_num + -0.103*24.state_num + 2.483*25.state_num + -0.161*28.state_num + 0.0364*33.state_num + 1.084*34.state_num + 1.070*36.state_num + -1.012*37.state_num + 2.753*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 1.347*44.state_num + -0.327*45.state_num + -0.319*48.state_num + 0.242*51.state_num + 3.905*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_para = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_para = cases_para*`mult_para'
		drop sst2

		// VUL
		gen sst2=sst-13 if sst>=13 & sst<20
		   replace sst2=0 if sst<13
		   replace sst2=7 if sst>20
		gen sst3=sst-20 if sst>=20
		   replace sst3=0 if sst<20
		local X = "-6.103 + 0.484*sst2 + 0.167*sst3 + 0*1.state_num + 0*2.state_num + -1.600*6.state_num + -0.725*9.state_num + -1.516*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -1.331*12.state_num + -2.212*13.state_num + -1.409*15.state_num + -1.657*22.state_num + -0.773*23.state_num + -0.583*24.state_num + -1.051*25.state_num + -0.652*28.state_num + 0*33.state_num + -1.554*34.state_num + -2.011*36.state_num + -2.272*37.state_num + -0.982*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + -1.627*44.state_num + -2.123*45.state_num + -0.918*48.state_num + -1.312*51.state_num + 0*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_vul = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_vul = cases_vul*`mult_vul'
		drop sst2 sst3

		// ALG
		gen sst2=sst-5 if sst>=5 & sst<22
		   replace sst2=0 if sst<5
		   replace sst2=17 if sst>22
		gen sst3=sst-22 if sst>=22
		   replace sst3=0 if sst<22
		local X = "-10.73 + 0.395*sst2 + 0.0960*sst3 + 0*1.state_num + 0*2.state_num + 3.387*6.state_num + 1.650*9.state_num + 1.271*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + 1.125*12.state_num + -1.102*13.state_num + 2.321*15.state_num + -2.422*22.state_num + 3.138*23.state_num + 0.00945*24.state_num + 2.767*25.state_num + -1.799*28.state_num + 2.513*33.state_num + 1.202*34.state_num + 1.141*36.state_num + 0.319*37.state_num + 0*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 2.152*44.state_num + 1.098*45.state_num + 0.205*48.state_num + -1.111*51.state_num + 2.294*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_alg = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_alg = cases_alg*`mult_alg'
		drop sst2 sst3

		// OTHER 
		local X = "-6.262 + 0.137*sst + 0*1.state_num + -0.726*2.state_num + 0.394*6.state_num + 1.074*9.state_num + 0.110*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -0.0440*12.state_num + -1.820*13.state_num + 0.0000387*15.state_num + 0.115*22.state_num + 0.416*23.state_num + 0.127*24.state_num + 1.279*25.state_num + -0.414*28.state_num + 0.541*33.state_num + 0.354*34.state_num + -0.938*36.state_num + -0.432*37.state_num + 0.520*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 0.432*44.state_num + -1.055*45.state_num + -0.206*48.state_num + -0.311*51.state_num + 1.536*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_other = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_other = cases_other*`mult_other'

		collapse (sum) cases_para cases_vul cases_alg cases_other, by(FIPS state_num year rcp run)

		gen era=2030 if year>=2020 & year<=2039
		  replace era=2050 if year>=2040 & year<=2059
		  replace era=2070 if year>=2060 & year<=2079
		  replace era=2090 if year>=2080 & year<=2099
		drop if era==.

		collapse (mean) cases_para cases_vul cases_alg cases_other, by(FIPS state_num era rcp run)

		tempfile conus_`x'
		save `conus_`x''
		clear
}


// ALASKA 

foreach x in "CCSM4_rcp85" "CCSM4_rcp45" "GFDLCM3_rcp85" "GFDLCM3_rcp45" "GISSE2R_rcp85" "GISSE2R_rcp45" "IPSLCM5ALR_rcp85" "IPSLCM5ALR_rcp45" "MRICGCM3_rcp85" "MRICGCM3_rcp45" {

		import excel using "ProjectedSST_Coastline_Alaska.xlsx", sheet(`x') firstrow case(upper) 
		   gen rcp=substr("`x'", -5, 5)
		   gen run=substr("`x'", 1, 4)
		   
		rename A FIPS
		gen state_num=substr(FIPS,-5,2)
			replace state_num=substr(FIPS,-4,1) if state_num==""
			drop if state_num=="F" 
			destring state_num, replace

		// CREATE VARIABLE NAMES FROM DATES
		local i 1
		foreach v of varlist B-AQK{
		rename `v' y`i'
		local i = `i' + 1
		}
		drop AQL- AQW // Alaska additions 


		reshape long y, i(FIPS) j(year_month)
		rename y sst

		gen month = mod(year,12)
		replace month = 12 if month == 0

		gen year = ""
		destring year, replace

		local i 1
		foreach j of numlist 2006/2099{
		replace year = `j' if (year_month/12) <= `i' & year_month/12 > `i' - 1
		local i = `i' + 1
		}
		
		// PREDICTION
		// include all vars in the models (regardless of stat sig) except year dummies 

		// PAR
		gen sst2=sst-8 if sst>=8
		   replace sst2=0 if sst2==.
		local X = "-6.458 + 0.204*sst2 + 0*1.state_num + 0.578*2.state_num + 1.712*6.state_num + 2.590*9.state_num + 0.447*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -0.323*12.state_num + -1.304*13.state_num + -0.593*15.state_num + -0.970*22.state_num + 1.414*23.state_num + -0.103*24.state_num + 2.483*25.state_num + -0.161*28.state_num + 0.0364*33.state_num + 1.084*34.state_num + 1.070*36.state_num + -1.012*37.state_num + 2.753*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 1.347*44.state_num + -0.327*45.state_num + -0.319*48.state_num + 0.242*51.state_num + 3.905*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_para = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_para = cases_para*`mult_para'
		drop sst2

		// VUL
		gen sst2=sst-13 if sst>=13 & sst<20
		   replace sst2=0 if sst<13
		   replace sst2=7 if sst>20
		gen sst3=sst-20 if sst>=20
		   replace sst3=0 if sst<20
		local X = "-6.103 + 0.484*sst2 + 0.167*sst3 + 0*1.state_num + 0*2.state_num + -1.600*6.state_num + -0.725*9.state_num + -1.516*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -1.331*12.state_num + -2.212*13.state_num + -1.409*15.state_num + -1.657*22.state_num + -0.773*23.state_num + -0.583*24.state_num + -1.051*25.state_num + -0.652*28.state_num + 0*33.state_num + -1.554*34.state_num + -2.011*36.state_num + -2.272*37.state_num + -0.982*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + -1.627*44.state_num + -2.123*45.state_num + -0.918*48.state_num + -1.312*51.state_num + 0*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_vul = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_vul = cases_vul*`mult_vul'
		drop sst2 sst3

		// ALG
		gen sst2=sst-5 if sst>=5 & sst<22
		   replace sst2=0 if sst<5
		   replace sst2=17 if sst>22
		gen sst3=sst-22 if sst>=22
		   replace sst3=0 if sst<22
		local X = "-10.73 + 0.395*sst2 + 0.0960*sst3 + 0*1.state_num + 0*2.state_num + 3.387*6.state_num + 1.650*9.state_num + 1.271*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + 1.125*12.state_num + -1.102*13.state_num + 2.321*15.state_num + -2.422*22.state_num + 3.138*23.state_num + 0.00945*24.state_num + 2.767*25.state_num + -1.799*28.state_num + 2.513*33.state_num + 1.202*34.state_num + 1.141*36.state_num + 0.319*37.state_num + 0*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 2.152*44.state_num + 1.098*45.state_num + 0.205*48.state_num + -1.111*51.state_num + 2.294*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_alg = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_alg = cases_alg*`mult_alg'
		drop sst2 sst3

		// OTHER 
		local X = "-6.262 + 0.137*sst + 0*1.state_num + -0.726*2.state_num + 0.394*6.state_num + 1.074*9.state_num + 0.110*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -0.0440*12.state_num + -1.820*13.state_num + 0.0000387*15.state_num + 0.115*22.state_num + 0.416*23.state_num + 0.127*24.state_num + 1.279*25.state_num + -0.414*28.state_num + 0.541*33.state_num + 0.354*34.state_num + -0.938*36.state_num + -0.432*37.state_num + 0.520*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 0.432*44.state_num + -1.055*45.state_num + -0.206*48.state_num + -0.311*51.state_num + 1.536*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_other = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_other = cases_other*`mult_other'


		collapse (sum) cases_para cases_vul cases_alg cases_other, by(FIPS state_num year rcp run)

		gen era=2030 if year>=2020 & year<=2039
		  replace era=2050 if year>=2040 & year<=2059
		  replace era=2070 if year>=2060 & year<=2079
		  replace era=2090 if year>=2080 & year<=2099
		drop if era==.

		collapse (mean) cases_para cases_vul cases_alg cases_other, by(FIPS state_num era rcp run)
		
		tempfile ak_`x'
		save `ak_`x''
		clear
}


// HAWAII

foreach x in "CanESM2_rcp45" "CanESM2_rcp85" "CCSM_rcp45" "CCSM_rcp85" "GISS_rcp85" "GISS_rcp45" "HadGEM2_rcp85" "HadGEM2_rcp45" "MIROC5_rcp45" "MIROC5_rcp85"  {

		import excel using "ProjectedSST_GCMrawSSTdelta_forHI_ONLY_v1.xlsx", sheet(`x') firstrow case(upper) 
		   gen rcp=substr("`x'", -5, 5)
		   gen run=substr("`x'", 1, 4)
		   
		rename A FIPS
		gen state_num=substr(FIPS,-5,2)
			replace state_num=substr(FIPS,-4,1) if state_num==""
			drop if state_num=="F" 
			destring state_num, replace

		// CREATE VARIABLE NAMES FROM DATES
		local i 1
		foreach v of varlist B-AQK{
		rename `v' y`i'
		local i = `i' + 1
		}
		capture drop AQL-AQW // Hawaii additions for some RCPs 

		reshape long y, i(FIPS) j(year_month)
		rename y sst

		gen month = mod(year,12)
		replace month = 12 if month == 0

		gen year = ""
		destring year, replace

		local i 1
		foreach j of numlist 2006/2099{
		replace year = `j' if (year_month/12) <= `i' & year_month/12 > `i' - 1
		local i = `i' + 1
		}
		
		// PREDICTION
		// include all vars in the models (regardless of stat sig) except year dummies 
		
		// PAR
		gen sst2=sst-8 if sst>=8
		   replace sst2=0 if sst2==.
		local X = "-6.458 + 0.204*sst2 + 0*1.state_num + 0.578*2.state_num + 1.712*6.state_num + 2.590*9.state_num + 0.447*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -0.323*12.state_num + -1.304*13.state_num + -0.593*15.state_num + -0.970*22.state_num + 1.414*23.state_num + -0.103*24.state_num + 2.483*25.state_num + -0.161*28.state_num + 0.0364*33.state_num + 1.084*34.state_num + 1.070*36.state_num + -1.012*37.state_num + 2.753*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 1.347*44.state_num + -0.327*45.state_num + -0.319*48.state_num + 0.242*51.state_num + 3.905*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_para = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_para = cases_para*`mult_para'
		drop sst2

		// VUL
		gen sst2=sst-13 if sst>=13 & sst<20
		   replace sst2=0 if sst<13
		   replace sst2=7 if sst>20
		gen sst3=sst-20 if sst>=20
		   replace sst3=0 if sst<20
		local X = "-6.103 + 0.484*sst2 + 0.167*sst3 + 0*1.state_num + 0*2.state_num + -1.600*6.state_num + -0.725*9.state_num + -1.516*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -1.331*12.state_num + -2.212*13.state_num + -1.409*15.state_num + -1.657*22.state_num + -0.773*23.state_num + -0.583*24.state_num + -1.051*25.state_num + -0.652*28.state_num + 0*33.state_num + -1.554*34.state_num + -2.011*36.state_num + -2.272*37.state_num + -0.982*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + -1.627*44.state_num + -2.123*45.state_num + -0.918*48.state_num + -1.312*51.state_num + 0*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_vul = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_vul = cases_vul*`mult_vul'
		drop sst2 sst3

		// ALG
		gen sst2=sst-5 if sst>=5 & sst<22
		   replace sst2=0 if sst<5
		   replace sst2=17 if sst>22
		gen sst3=sst-22 if sst>=22
		   replace sst3=0 if sst<22
		local X = "-10.73 + 0.395*sst2 + 0.0960*sst3 + 0*1.state_num + 0*2.state_num + 3.387*6.state_num + 1.650*9.state_num + 1.271*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + 1.125*12.state_num + -1.102*13.state_num + 2.321*15.state_num + -2.422*22.state_num + 3.138*23.state_num + 0.00945*24.state_num + 2.767*25.state_num + -1.799*28.state_num + 2.513*33.state_num + 1.202*34.state_num + 1.141*36.state_num + 0.319*37.state_num + 0*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 2.152*44.state_num + 1.098*45.state_num + 0.205*48.state_num + -1.111*51.state_num + 2.294*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_alg = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_alg = cases_alg*`mult_alg'
		drop sst2 sst3

		// OTHER 
		local X = "-6.262 + 0.137*sst + 0*1.state_num + -0.726*2.state_num + 0.394*6.state_num + 1.074*9.state_num + 0.110*10.state_num + 0*11.state_num + -0.0440*12.state_num + -1.820*13.state_num + 0.0000387*15.state_num + 0.115*22.state_num + 0.416*23.state_num + 0.127*24.state_num + 1.279*25.state_num + -0.414*28.state_num + 0.541*33.state_num + 0.354*34.state_num + -0.938*36.state_num + -0.432*37.state_num + 0.520*41.state_num + 0*42.state_num + 0.432*44.state_num + -1.055*45.state_num + -0.206*48.state_num + -0.311*51.state_num + 1.536*53.state_num" 
		generate cases_other = exp(`X') /(1 + exp(`X'))
		   replace cases_other = cases_other*`mult_other'


		collapse (sum) cases_para cases_vul cases_alg cases_other, by(FIPS state_num year rcp run)

		gen era=2030 if year>=2020 & year<=2039
		  replace era=2050 if year>=2040 & year<=2059
		  replace era=2070 if year>=2060 & year<=2079
		  replace era=2090 if year>=2080 & year<=2099
		drop if era==.

		collapse (mean) cases_para cases_vul cases_alg cases_other, by(FIPS state_num era rcp run)
		
		tempfile hi_`x'
		save `hi_`x''
		clear
}

use `baseline'
append using `conus_CanESM2_rcp85'
append using `conus_CanESM2_rcp45'
append using `conus_MIROC5_rcp45'
append using `conus_MIROC5_rcp85'
append using `conus_HadGEM2ES_rcp85'
append using `conus_HadGEM2ES_rcp45'
append using `conus_GISSE2R_rcp85'
append using `conus_GISSE2R_rcp45'
append using `conus_GFDLCM3_rcp85'
append using `conus_GFDLCM3_rcp45'
append using `conus_CCSM4_rcp85'
append using `conus_CCSM4_rcp45'
append using `ak_GISSE2R_rcp85'
append using `ak_GISSE2R_rcp45'
append using `ak_GFDLCM3_rcp85'
append using `ak_GFDLCM3_rcp45'
append using `ak_CCSM4_rcp85'
append using `ak_CCSM4_rcp45'
append using `ak_MRICGCM3_rcp85'
append using `ak_MRICGCM3_rcp45'
append using `ak_IPSLCM5ALR_rcp85'
append using `ak_IPSLCM5ALR_rcp45'
append using `hi_CanESM2_rcp85'
append using `hi_CanESM2_rcp45'
append using `hi_MIROC5_rcp45'
append using `hi_MIROC5_rcp85'
append using `hi_HadGEM2_rcp85'
append using `hi_HadGEM2_rcp45'
append using `hi_GISS_rcp85'
append using `hi_GISS_rcp45'
append using `hi_CCSM_rcp85'
append using `hi_CCSM_rcp45'

/*
table era run if rcp=="baseline", contents(sum cases_para) 
table era run if rcp=="rcp45", contents(sum cases_para) 
table era run if rcp=="rcp85", contents(sum cases_para)

table era run if rcp=="baseline", contents(sum cases_vul) 
table era run if rcp=="rcp45", contents(sum cases_vul) 
table era run if rcp=="rcp85", contents(sum cases_vul)

table era run if rcp=="baseline", contents(sum cases_alg) 
table era run if rcp=="rcp45", contents(sum cases_alg) 
table era run if rcp=="rcp85", contents(sum cases_alg)

table era run if rcp=="baseline", contents(sum cases_other) 
table era run if rcp=="rcp45", contents(sum cases_other) 
table era run if rcp=="rcp85", contents(sum cases_other)
*/

// average across model runs at the county level 
collapse (mean) cases_para cases_vul cases_alg cases_other (min) Mincases_para=cases_para Mincases_vul=cases_vul Mincases_alg=cases_alg Mincases_other=cases_other (max) Maxcases_para=cases_para Maxcases_vul=cases_vul Maxcases_alg=cases_alg Maxcases_other=cases_other, by(FIPS state_num era rcp)
sort state_num FIPS rcp era

// sum across counties 
collapse (sum) cases_para-Maxcases_other, by(era rcp)
sort rcp era
save "PROJECTIONS_CASES", replace 

***************
***************
** VALUATION **
***************
***************

/* health outcome categories
1-Visited physician, recovered
2-Hospitalized (non-sepsis)
3-Post-hospitalization, recovery (non-sepsis)
4-Hospitalized (sepsis)
5-Post-hospitalization, recovery (sepsis)
6-Post-hospitalization, death
7-Unreported cases 
*/

drop Mincases_para-Maxcases_other 

local cost_vsl_e04_2010 = 10339531 
local cost_vsl_e04_2030 = 11700000 
local cost_vsl_e04_2050 = 13200000
local cost_vsl_e04_2070 = 14600000
local cost_vsl_e04_2090 = 16100000
local cost_wage_2010 = 175.35 
local cost_wage_2030 = 238.75 
local cost_wage_2050 = 320.89
local cost_wage_2070 = 416.15
local cost_wage_2090 = 528.39


gen cases_para_1=cases_para*0.1250
gen cases_para_2=cases_para*0.0029
gen cases_para_3=cases_para*0.0028
gen cases_para_4=cases_para*0
gen cases_para_5=cases_para*0
gen cases_para_6=cases_para*0.0001
gen cases_para_7=cases_para*0.8721

gen cases_vul_1=cases_vul*0.0313
gen cases_vul_2=cases_vul*0.1928
gen cases_vul_3=cases_vul*0.1928
gen cases_vul_4=cases_vul*0.7760
gen cases_vul_5=cases_vul*0.4010
gen cases_vul_6=cases_vul*0.3750
gen cases_vul_7=cases_vul*0

gen cases_alg_1=cases_alg*0.1250
gen cases_alg_2=cases_alg*0.0047
gen cases_alg_3=cases_alg*0.0043
gen cases_alg_4=cases_alg*0
gen cases_alg_5=cases_alg*0
gen cases_alg_6=cases_alg*0.0005
gen cases_alg_7=cases_alg*0.8703

gen cases_other_1=cases_other*0.1250
gen cases_other_2=cases_other*0.0047
gen cases_other_3=cases_other*0.0043
gen cases_other_4=cases_other*0
gen cases_other_5=cases_other*0
gen cases_other_6=cases_other*0.0005
gen cases_other_7=cases_other*0.8703

gen costd_para_1=cases_para_1*516.18
gen costd_para_2=cases_para_2*17889.49
gen costd_para_3=cases_para_3*146.05

gen costi_para_1=cases_para_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_para_1=cases_para_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_para_1=cases_para_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_para_1=cases_para_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_para_1=cases_para_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_para_2=cases_para_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_para_2=cases_para_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_para_2=cases_para_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_para_2=cases_para_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_para_2=cases_para_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_para_3=cases_para_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_para_3=cases_para_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_para_3=cases_para_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_para_3=cases_para_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_para_3=cases_para_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_para_7=cases_para_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_para_7=cases_para_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_para_7=cases_para_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_para_7=cases_para_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_para_7=cases_para_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costm_para_6=cases_para_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2010' if era==1995
   replace costm_para_6=cases_para_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2030' if era==2030
   replace costm_para_6=cases_para_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2050' if era==2050
   replace costm_para_6=cases_para_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2070' if era==2070
   replace costm_para_6=cases_para_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2090' if era==2090

gen costd_vul_1=cases_vul_1*516.18
gen costd_vul_2=cases_vul_2*41408.12
gen costd_vul_3=cases_vul_3*146.05
gen costd_vul_4=cases_vul_4*123226.09
gen costd_vul_5=cases_vul_5*146.05

gen costi_vul_1=cases_vul_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_vul_1=cases_vul_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_vul_1=cases_vul_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_vul_1=cases_vul_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_vul_1=cases_vul_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_vul_2=cases_vul_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_vul_2=cases_vul_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_vul_2=cases_vul_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_vul_2=cases_vul_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_vul_2=cases_vul_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_vul_3=cases_vul_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_vul_3=cases_vul_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_vul_3=cases_vul_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_vul_3=cases_vul_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_vul_3=cases_vul_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_vul_4=cases_vul_4*5.0*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_vul_4=cases_vul_4*5.0*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_vul_4=cases_vul_4*5.0*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_vul_4=cases_vul_4*5.0*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_vul_4=cases_vul_4*5.0*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_vul_5=cases_vul_5*5.0*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_vul_5=cases_vul_5*5.0*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_vul_5=cases_vul_5*5.0*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_vul_5=cases_vul_5*5.0*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_vul_5=cases_vul_5*5.0*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costm_vul_6=cases_vul_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2010' if era==1995
   replace costm_vul_6=cases_vul_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2030' if era==2030
   replace costm_vul_6=cases_vul_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2050' if era==2050
   replace costm_vul_6=cases_vul_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2070' if era==2070
   replace costm_vul_6=cases_vul_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2090' if era==2090
   
gen costd_alg_1=cases_alg_1*658.63
gen costd_alg_2=cases_alg_2*22826.34
gen costd_alg_3=cases_alg_3*186.35

gen costi_alg_1=cases_alg_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_alg_1=cases_alg_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_alg_1=cases_alg_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_alg_1=cases_alg_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_alg_1=cases_alg_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_alg_2=cases_alg_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_alg_2=cases_alg_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_alg_2=cases_alg_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_alg_2=cases_alg_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_alg_2=cases_alg_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_alg_3=cases_alg_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_alg_3=cases_alg_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_alg_3=cases_alg_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_alg_3=cases_alg_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_alg_3=cases_alg_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_alg_7=cases_alg_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_alg_7=cases_alg_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_alg_7=cases_alg_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_alg_7=cases_alg_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_alg_7=cases_alg_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costm_alg_6=cases_alg_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2010' if era==1995
   replace costm_alg_6=cases_alg_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2030' if era==2030
   replace costm_alg_6=cases_alg_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2050' if era==2050
   replace costm_alg_6=cases_alg_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2070' if era==2070
   replace costm_alg_6=cases_alg_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2090' if era==2090
  
gen costd_other_1=cases_other_1*658.63
gen costd_other_2=cases_other_2*22826.34
gen costd_other_3=cases_other_3*186.35

gen costi_other_1=cases_other_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_other_1=cases_other_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_other_1=cases_other_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_other_1=cases_other_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_other_1=cases_other_1*1.67*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_other_2=cases_other_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_other_2=cases_other_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_other_2=cases_other_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_other_2=cases_other_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_other_2=cases_other_2*6.43*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_other_3=cases_other_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_other_3=cases_other_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_other_3=cases_other_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_other_3=cases_other_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_other_3=cases_other_3*4.29*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costi_other_7=cases_other_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2010' if era==1995
   replace costi_other_7=cases_other_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2030' if era==2030
   replace costi_other_7=cases_other_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2050' if era==2050
   replace costi_other_7=cases_other_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2070' if era==2070
   replace costi_other_7=cases_other_7*0.5*`cost_wage_2090' if era==2090
gen costm_other_6=cases_other_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2010' if era==1995
   replace costm_other_6=cases_other_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2030' if era==2030
   replace costm_other_6=cases_other_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2050' if era==2050
   replace costm_other_6=cases_other_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2070' if era==2070
   replace costm_other_6=cases_other_6*`cost_vsl_e04_2090' if era==2090

// totals by direct medical, indirect productivity, and mortality    
egen costd_para_all=rowtotal(costd_para_*)
egen costi_para_all=rowtotal(costi_para_*)
egen costm_para_all=rowtotal(costm_para_*)

egen costd_vul_all=rowtotal(costd_vul_*)
egen costi_vul_all=rowtotal(costi_vul_*)
egen costm_vul_all=rowtotal(costm_vul_*)

egen costd_alg_all=rowtotal(costd_alg_*)
egen costi_alg_all=rowtotal(costi_alg_*)
egen costm_alg_all=rowtotal(costm_alg_*)

egen costd_other_all=rowtotal(costd_other_*)
egen costi_other_all=rowtotal(costi_other_*)
egen costm_other_all=rowtotal(costm_other_*)

sort rcp era
browse era rcp costd_para_all- costm_other_all 
save "PROJECTIONS_VALUATION", replace